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Post-growth: how to limit global warming to 1.5°C
Economic growth is the main driver of global CO₂ emissions, as it tends to increase energy demand, making it harder to decarbonize the entire energy system. The link between growth and emissions was evident in the slowdown of global emissions from 2010 to 2020, which occurred despite weak mitigation efforts—mainly due to a much slower-than-expected pace of global economic growth.
Despite the recent trend toward slower economic growth and its effect on global CO₂ emissions, the climate mitigation scenarios considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continue to exclude futures with lower economic growth.
A recent study by Aljoša Slameršak, Giorgos Kallis, Daniel O’Neill, and Jason Hickel, published in One Earth, shows that by moving away from the pursuit of high economic growth, the world could significantly reduce the gap between today’s dangerously high emissions trajectory and the pathways needed to remain within a safe climate space. In contrast, continued pursuit of strong economic growth could leave no viable path to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The study presents contrasting mitigation pathways: on one hand, a return to a trajectory of high global economic growth with limited climate action (“High Growth and Current Policies” scenario); on the other hand, a continuation of the global low-growth trend observed from 2010 to 2020, combined with increased climate ambition (“Low Growth and High Ambition” scenario).
By comparing low- and high-growth scenarios, the authors show that slower economic growth alone could lead to a reduction in CO₂ emissions of up to 13% by 2030. Moreover, lower growth would make it possible to achieve the necessary emission reductions with less expansion of low-carbon energy sources and more moderate efficiency improvements than those assumed in current mitigation scenarios.
However, the authors emphasize that even in low-growth scenarios, 1.5°C-compatible mitigation pathways require an acceleration of decarbonization efforts and a reduction in energy consumption. The level of ambition needed is equivalent to the immediate, global adoption of the climate targets set out in the European Green Deal.
Download the full publication: https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(23)00507-9