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A just low-carbon transition requires coordinated policies
How can a low-carbon transition also be socially just? This is the main question addressed by the article Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition, published in the journal Ecological Economics and written by Nicola Campigotto, Marco Catola, André Cieplinski, Simone D’Alessandro, Tiziano Distefano, Pietro Guarnieri and Till Heydenreich.
The research uses a revised version of Eurogreen, an ecological macroeconomic model designed to analyse the links between the economy, income distribution, energy consumption and carbon emissions. The authors examined around 16,000 simulations, considering many different combinations of policies and possible economic, social and environmental developments.
Instead of assessing only a limited number of scenarios defined in advance, the study explores a much wider range of possibilities. Through a method known as scenario discovery, it identifies the combinations of measures that can reduce both emissions and income inequality.
The results show that policies supporting lower-income groups are essential for reducing inequality. However, higher incomes may also increase the demand for goods and energy, leading to higher emissions. To balance this effect, social support measures need to be combined with a faster expansion of renewable energy and stronger environmental policies.
Measures that reduce the concentration of income among the richest groups can also improve income distribution while limiting increases in energy consumption and emissions. Climate and redistributive policies therefore overlap only partly and need to be included in coordinated policy packages.
The study also finds that a just low-carbon transition does not necessarily require strong GDP growth, although it does not exclude it. However, when economic growth is treated as the main policy objective, the number of policy combinations that can achieve both climate and social goals becomes more limited.
The research therefore confirms the need for an integrated approach to the ecological transition, combining changes in the energy system with measures addressing the distribution of income.